Why judging trades immediately after they occur is silly (especially if that trade involves prospects/picks)

Reviewing one of my first trades, how it was criticized, and how those takes aged poorly

I joined this league as GM of the Capitals a couple of years ago. During my first draft, I saw a player I liked that was still available and wanted to move up in the draft. So I sent an offer to New Jersey, and we made it work. The trade was the following: 

Saturday, August 14, 2021 5:17 PM

Year 2021 - Round 2 - TOR

Cal Foote Year 2021 - Round 3 - WAS

N/A

To my surprise, the trade was immediately criticized. Maybe because I've never liked Cal Foote, but I didn't see it as an overpay whatsoever and was happy to move up. Many GMs did not agree. Senators GM Steve Downs commented "Mark Stefenelli taking advantage of a new GM..." Kings GM JL Wolf called it a "Brutal trade." Former Jets GM Will Clarke commented "The newbie should get a mulligan on this one."

Personally, I've always been of the belief that if there is a guy you really like, you do what you can to get him. When I saw that Logan Stankoven was still on the board, that instinct kicked in and I just needed to move up. I ended up drafting Logan with the 2nd I acquired from NJ, and then NJ used the 3rd to draft Redmond Savage. So the trade was essentially Cal Foote and Red Savage for Logan Stankoven. Whether or not this is a fair trade, it's really up to you, but I do think Stankoven is the best player in this trade, and I don't even think that's debatable.

However, it doesn't end there! Because Logan Stankoven has just recently been traded away. In this trade, he was used as the main piece along with two draft picks, a 1st and a 4th, in return for Nikita Kucherov. So in a sense, I traded Cal Foote, a 1st, a 3rd (Red Savage), and a 4th for one of the best players in the league. Of course, hindsight is 20/20, but I defended the trade then and I will continue to defend it now as it let me get the guy I really wanted in Stankoven, which then helped me acquire one of the best players of the last decade.

This is why judging trades immediately after they occur is so incredibly silly. Maybe less so if all the players involved are established in the league, but that was not the case here. Cal Foote was a young defenseman, and the two picks are impossible to immediately gauge. So, why criticize something so early when there are so many intangibles at play? I don't mean to say that all trades should be free of criticism for 2+ years, there are definitely some trades where the value immediately looks lopsided, but let's maybe not take the pitchforks out seconds after a trade has been made!